Fidelity Analyst: Bitcoin will be a “fallow year” in 2026, with a support range of $65,000 to $75,000
Fidelity Macro Director Timmer pointed out that the four-year cycle may have reached the end of the stage, predicting that if Bitcoin continues to decline in 2026, it will backtest support of US$65,000-75,000.
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Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to trade at 8.8 in the past 24 hours. It fluctuates within a narrow range around $10,000, while Ethereum is very close to $3,000 but has been unable to really stand on it. On this occasion, Jurrien Timmer, global head of macro at Fidelity Investments, recently compared historical charts and pointed out that the peak of Bitcoin's "four-year halving cycle" is suspected to have been reached. In the next year, investors may have to face a fallow period lacking momentum.
$126,000 may become a cycle high
Timmer compared the trend in 2025 with The end points of the bull markets in 2013 and 2017 overlapped, and prices and time trajectories were found to be similar. He pointed out that the cooling of ETF buying, institutional profit-taking, and the fact that the benefits of Trump's victory were priced in were the main reasons for Bitcoin's retreat from the high to the $87,000 range.
Therefore, Timmer concluded that "the expansion period has come to an end." However, from a technical perspective, if $126,000 is regarded as the peak in 2025, the current retracement of about 30% is still moderate. Timmer emphasized that this is not a denial of the long-term bull market, but a typical mid-term correction.
While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025
Fallow year support range 65,000 to 75,000
Looking to 2026, Timmer Based on the past rule of "bull markets tend to be weak every other year", it is estimated that the market will enter a year of fallow. If the decline continues, $65,000 to $75,000 will provide the first line of support, which also overlaps with the intensive trading area in early 2025.
If calculated from the high point, the drop to $65,000 represents a correction of about 48%, which is in the middle of a historically cold winter.
In addition, the reduction in ETF net inflows, the RSI retreat to around 55, and the potential chain selling pressure after the loss of $80,000 are all cooling signals in his eyes. CryptoSlate’s analysis also suggests that if the rebound fails to return to the pressure zone of $94,000 to $105,000, the short advantage will continue.
In summary, he suggested that investors retain cash, diversify risks, and wait for the price to fall back to $65,000 to $75,000, which may be an opportunity to add positions again; if BTC breaks through $100,000 in reverse, this prediction should be re-evaluated.
Patience and risk control are still necessary to survive the cold winter.
